Energy substitution dynamics: a binary logistic model for fossil and non-fossil competition

4 Nov 2025, 14:45
15m
60/Ground-102 - Lecture Hall (Administration Building)

60/Ground-102 - Lecture Hall

Administration Building

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Description

This research applies Marchetti's logistic substitution theory to analyze competition between fossil fuels and low-carbon energy sources using global energy consumption data spanning 1965-2023. The study consolidates nine energy sources into two competing categories: fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) and renewables plus nuclear power (solar, wind, hydropower, nuclear, biofuels, other renewables). The research demonstrates that logistic substitution models retain descriptive power for macroscopic energy system analysis.

Technical Track Nuclear Applications and Radiation Processing

Primary authors

Prof. Antonio Cammi (Khalifa University) Prof. Francois Foulon (Khalifa University) Prof. Mohammad Alrwashdeh (Khalifa University) Prof. Laura Savoldi (Politecnico di Torino) Dr Carolina Introini (Politecnico di Milano) Mr Yantao Luo (Politecnico di Milano)

Presentation materials