Probabilistic Model Chain Methodology for Radiological Risk Assessment in SMR Reactors: A Site-Specific Approach for Enhanced Nuclear Safety and Emergency Planning

4 Nov 2025, 10:15
15m
60/Ground-104 - Lecture Hall (Administration Building)

60/Ground-104 - Lecture Hall

Administration Building

80
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Extended Abstract Safety and Severe Accidents

Description

This paper presents an innovative methodology for analyzing and modeling fission product releases in Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) using the Probabilistic Model Chain Methodology (PMCM). The proposed approach integrates detailed site-specific meteorological data, reactor design parameters, and severe accident scenarios to enable more accurate predictions of radioactive plume dispersion and dose assessment. The methodology supports both deterministic and probabilistic Level 3 Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs), allowing for improved definition of emergency planning zones. This contributes to enhanced public safety, more targeted emergency preparedness, and greater cost efficiency in the deployment of SMRs.

Technical Track Safety and Severe Accidents

Primary author

Dr Piotr Kopka (National Centre for Nuclear Research (NCBJ))

Co-authors

Afaque Shams (Industrial Nuclear Energy (I) - IRC - General) Tomasz Kozlowski (National Centre for Nuclear Research)

Presentation materials